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今年银行业发展将呈现六大趋势 不良贷款加速暴露

来源:发布者:时间:2019-07-11 13:01:02

China's banking industry development report is released until this year, the banking industry will show six major trends

Our reporter Guo Ziyuan

Under the background of the continuous deepening of the structural reform of the financial supply side and the coordinated promotion of financial supervision, what opportunities and challenges will the banking industry face next? What characteristics will its development trend present?《2019年度中国银行业发展报告》(hereinafter referred to as《报告》) released by the China Banking Association in Beijing on July 10 shows that there are six major trends worthy of attention.

Specifically, the first is that the growth rate of banking assets is expected to stabilize and the credit investment will still prefer low-risk areas. Second, the pressure on deposit growth will be eased, but the difficulty of liquidity management still exists. Third, the guidance of regulatory policies. The financing environment of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises will continue to improve, and credit will continue to grow. Fourth, net interest margins may peak, and net fee income is expected to improve further. Fifth, asset quality may be under pressure. Different institutions will continue to differentiate; sixth, under the superposition of multiple factors, the profit growth rate of the banking industry will stabilize and slow down.

"In the context of increasing bank credits and the appropriate relaxation of off-balance-sheet business supervision requirements, the growth rate of banking assets is expected to stabilize and maintain a stable level of 7% to 8%." Chief Economics of Bank of Communications Jia Lianping said that from the preference of credit investment, the banking industry will focus on three areas, one is credit card and housing mortgage loan; the other is that in the context of infrastructure investment, the bank will target PPP financing projects. More credit resources are allocated; third is the areas and weak links that the state supports, such as inclusive finance and green finance.

In addition to the asset side, there will be new changes in the debt side of the banking industry.《报告》It is believed that the pressure on the growth of commercial bank deposits will be marginalized this year, but the pressure on core deposit growth still exists, and liquidity management constraints remain.

xxThe reason is mainly due to the variable internal and external operating environment, and it is difficult to significantly improve the cash flow pressure of the corporate sector, which will put pressure on the growth of core deposits. Therefore,《报告》expects that the growth of deposits of commercial banks will still rely on structural deposits, and the proportion of active liabilities may continue to increase.

In addition, in response to changes in the “net fee” that the industry is highly concerned with,《报告》pointed out that as the financial subsidiaries of a number of commercial banks continue to land, net fee income is expected to change positively. "On the one hand, the main contribution of the growth of net fee income of commercial banks in 2018 comes from the credit card business. It is expected that most banks will continue to exert their efforts in this business; on the other hand, with the opening of financial subsidiaries, it is expected to be a wealth management business. Under the premise that the income will drop sharply in 2018, this year there will be obvious repairs," Lian Ping said.

What are the next development trends in response to asset quality issues that are of general concern to all sectors of society?《报告》It is believed that asset quality follow-up may still be under pressure and different institutions will continue to differentiate.

Specifically, since 2018, under the influence of supervision and encouragement of strengthening non-performing loans, the rate of non-performing loans has risen, especially the accelerated exposure of non-performing loans by city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, but the rate of non-performing loans is still generally The control interval, and with some banks basically overdue loans over 90 days into non-performing loans, the “hidden burden” of the bank's asset quality has been greatly reduced.

However, it is worth noting that the bank's non-performing assets will usher in a more stringent "ruler." In April of this year, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued《商业银行金融资产风险分类暂行办法(征求意见稿)》, broadened the scope of financial assets classified by risk, broadened the risk classification object from all credit assets to the on- and off-balance sheet assets, and demanded over 90 days of debts, even if the mortgage guarantee was sufficient. Also classified as a non-performing loan.

xx因此,在边际缓解不良贷款存量压力的情况下,面对经济环境的不确定性,高质量的发展要求,以及更严格的新资产分类法规,银行业面临的风险压力将保持不变减少,整体资产质量可能会承受压力。

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